TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 10:31 AM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of the first quarter in an upcoming professional football game between two teams. Each market evaluates different point spreads to determine which team will lead by a specific margin at the end of the first quarter.
All markets resolve based solely on the scoring differential between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Jacksonville Jaguars during the first quarter of their game scheduled for October 11, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs when the specified team's victory margin exceeds the designated point spread for that market. Only points scored in the first quarter count; any scoring in subsequent quarters is irrelevant. Each market features a unique point spread threshold, ranging from narrow margins like over 2.5 points to larger gaps such as over 10.5 points, allowing participants to assess varying levels of dominance by either team within the opening quarter. The markets are independent, meaning each resolves separately according to its specific criteria.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and beliefs. Often, prediction markets are considered more accurate than traditional polls or expert opinions, as they incentivize participants to express their true beliefs. However, sportsbook odds are readily available and provide a useful point of comparison for assessing the potential value in this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the Eagles-Jaguars 1st quarter spread. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information, leading to dynamic price movements. The more traders believe a particular spread is likely, the higher the price of the corresponding contract will be. This creates a real-time assessment of the game's likely first-quarter performance.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official result of the first quarter spread of the Eagles-Jaguars game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official spread as determined by the game’s official scoring and statistics. The platform will then determine which contracts payout based on whether the actual spread falls within the ranges defined by the contracts available in this market. Traders will receive payouts according to their positions at the time of resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Eagles or the Jaguars would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts could also impact the expected scoring and therefore the spread. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could shift market sentiment. Even public perception, as reflected in social media or expert analysis, can contribute to price fluctuations as traders react to new information and adjust their positions in this market.