Will players make the cut?

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in whether a golfer will make the cut. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome. As more traders buy shares, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of success. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently incorporates new information as traders react to news, performance updates, and other relevant factors, constantly refining the implied probabilities for each golfer. This dynamic pricing reflects the collective intelligence of the market participants.

This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome determined by whether each golfer listed in the market successfully makes the cut at the Bank of Utah Championship. The official results from the PGA Tour will be used to verify which players advance to the weekend rounds. The outcome will be confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final results and their positions in this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding golfer injuries, withdrawals, or changes in form will likely cause price fluctuations. Live performance during the first two rounds of the tournament will be a major driver, with strong or weak starts heavily influencing the odds. Weather conditions, particularly if they are unusually challenging, could also shift probabilities. Unexpected pairings or course setup changes could also play a role, as could any significant shifts in public sentiment or expert analysis regarding a golfer’s chances of making the cut.