TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 8:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the outcome of a professional mixed martial arts (MMA) bout between two fighters scheduled for a specific date. It reflects who will win the contest, with provisions for changes in the fight's schedule or unexpected results. The market remains active if the event is postponed, adjusting its resolution based on updated circumstances.
The market resolves based on the winner of the Levan Khabalaev vs. Brock Hamer professional MMA fight originally scheduled for October 16, 2026. If the fight is postponed or delayed, the market stays open and closes after the rescheduled fight concludes, provided it occurs within two weeks of the original date. Should the bout end in a tie or no contest, the market resolves as a 50/50 split for both participants. If the fight is canceled or rescheduled to more than two weeks after the original date, the market resolves at a fair price as determined by the platform’s rules. The market is independent of the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on their own analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides. This market, however, allows individuals to express their own predictions, and the resulting odds can incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before significant news or events impact the perceived probabilities. Examining these differences can reveal insights into where the crowd believes sportsbooks may be mispricing the outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more people buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth shows the available contracts at different price points, giving you an idea of how easily you can enter or exit a position. This dynamic pricing allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Khabalaev vs Hamer fight, as declared by the relevant professional fighting organization. The platform will verify the result against reliable sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event result. Traders holding contracts on the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the losing outcome will forfeit their investment.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding fighter injuries, changes in training regimens, or even pre-fight press conference dynamics could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about weight class adjustments or rule changes could also influence the odds. Furthermore, public betting patterns from sportsbooks and analysis from MMA experts can act as catalysts, prompting traders to reassess their positions. Major upsets in similar fights leading up to Oct 17, 2026 could also cause a ripple effect, altering the perceived probabilities within this market.