TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$172,394,893
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,821,572,886
404,136
Markets across
40,075
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 7:24 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Penarol and Progreso in Uruguay's top division. The match's result will determine the resolution of specific outcome-based markets. The event accounts for regular-time results only, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event covers a professional Uruguay Primera Division soccer match between Penarol and Progreso scheduled for October 10, 2026. There are three possible outcomes: Penarol wins, Progreso wins, or the match ends in a tie—all determined after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, but not including extra time or penalty kicks. Each outcome has a corresponding market that resolves to 'Yes' if that specific result occurs. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price based on prevailing conditions and probabilities at the time of rescheduling.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the aggregated predictions of informed traders. It’s common to see differences emerge, especially as new information becomes available. If you believe the market is mispricing the likelihood of a particular outcome in the Penarol vs Progreso match, you can capitalize on the discrepancy by trading on Kalshi. Remember that prediction markets can sometimes be more accurate than traditional forecasts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust accordingly. The market depth and trading volume indicate the level of confidence and agreement among participants regarding the potential results of the Penarol vs Progreso match. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time assessment of probabilities.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Penarol vs Progreso match as reported by a recognized sports data provider. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the final contract price at resolution. It’s important to monitor news and official sources leading up to Oct 11, 2026 to stay informed about any factors that could influence the final result of this market.
Several signals could significantly move this market before Oct 11, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Penarol or Progreso would likely impact the odds. Changes in team form, unexpected tactical decisions announced by the managers, or even weather conditions on match day could all influence trader sentiment. Major upsets in other matches involving these teams, or significant shifts in public opinion, could also contribute to price movements. Monitoring sports news and analysis focused on the Penarol vs Progreso match is crucial for understanding potential catalysts.