TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 8:27 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the outcome of a professional soccer match between Paysandu and Ferroviaria, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It considers different thresholds for goal differences to determine the result. The event is part of the Brasileiro Serie C league, reflecting competitive play between the two clubs.
The event consists of four distinct outcome markets for the Paysandu versus Ferroviaria match scheduled for October 3, 2026, each evaluating different goal margin thresholds for resolution. The primary rule for each market specifies that the outcome resolves based on whether Paysandu or Ferroviaria achieves a win by a margin exceeding either 1.5 or 2.5 goals after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with extra time and penalty shootouts excluded from consideration. All markets share the same secondary rule, clarifying that the platform hosting these markets—Kalshi—is not officially affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks and brand names belong to their respective owners. Resolution depends solely on the official match result as determined by the league, without regard to any external interpretations or affiliations.
Generally, prediction markets like Kalshi often reflect information beyond what’s captured in traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd. If sportsbook odds suggest a clear favorite, it’s interesting to see if this market shows a different expectation, potentially indicating factors not fully priced into the sportsbook lines. Discrepancies can arise from differing access to information or varying interpretations of the same data, and can present opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth, represented by the bid and ask prices, shows how much volume is available at different price points, giving an indication of the market’s liquidity and potential price movement. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to reflect the collective intelligence of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Paysandu vs Ferroviaria match, as determined by the governing sporting body. The exact details of the match result will be used to determine which contracts, if any, will pay out. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution. Please review Kalshi for the most up-to-date information.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 4, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or shifts in coaching strategies could significantly impact trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions or controversies surrounding the match could also lead to price fluctuations. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and drive price movement, especially if they signal informed traders taking a strong position. Monitoring these signals can help you understand the evolving expectations surrounding the Paysandu vs Ferroviaria match.