TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:33 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks which team will cover the spread in the second half of the Patriots vs. Bills NFL game. Currently, Polymarket gives a 37.0% probability to the Bills covering a 6.5-point spread, with a 25.0% probability assigned to them covering a 9.5-point spread. The resolution source for this market is the official NFL website at https://www.nfl.com/scores. Keep an eye on the kickoff of the game on October 4 at 1:00PM ET, as the outcome will be determined by the final second-half score and spread.
In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 1:00PM ET: If Patriots wins, the market will resolve to "Patriots". If Bills wins, the market will resolve to "Bills". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Compared to traditional sportsbook odds, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more nuanced outlook shaped by trader sentiment and real-time data. While sportsbooks may incorporate broader public betting trends and adjusted lines, prediction markets let participants bet directly on their expectations, sometimes creating sharper or more volatile pricing. Monitoring both can give you a fuller picture of where public and trader confidence lie.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the odds through their own buying and selling activity, which determines the current implied probability for each possible outcome. The market price adjusts dynamically based on volume and recent trades, reflecting the collective wisdom of participants. This decentralized pricing mechanism often results in prices that differ from traditional sportsbooks or other prediction venues.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is determined by the official game outcome, which is then matched against the market’s defined payouts. Traders can track confirmed results through news sources or official league announcements as the date approaches.
Injuries to key players, changes in coaching strategy, or shifting weather conditions could all move this market before it settles. Additionally, high-profile media coverage or analyst predictions may influence trader sentiment. As the game nears, any last-minute roster updates or venue-related news can also cause noticeable shifts in odds and volume on Polymarket.