TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 3:20 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses different margin-based outcomes for an upcoming Serie A soccer match between Parma Calcio and Udinese. It focuses on the potential score differences that determine various winning scenarios for each team within the standard match duration.
The event evaluates multiple scoring margin conditions across a single professional Serie A soccer match between Parma Calcio and Udinese. Resolution occurs based on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Four distinct outcome thresholds exist: Parma Calcio winning by more than 2.5 goals, Parma Calcio winning by more than 1.5 goals, Udinese winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Udinese winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each threshold represents an independent condition that resolves the corresponding market to 'Yes' if met. The match must remain officially scheduled for October 28, 2026, and all outcomes are determined solely by the regulation-time result. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and often incorporate a margin for profit. This market, however, is driven by the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. As a result, prediction market prices can sometimes diverge from sportsbook lines, reflecting a different assessment of probabilities. It’s common to see prediction markets move more efficiently as new information becomes available, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than fixed sportsbook odds.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome of the Parma vs Udinese match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders can place limit orders or market orders to participate, and the market price fluctuates based on trading activity. Higher demand for a particular outcome will drive up its price, indicating a greater perceived likelihood. The current market price represents the aggregated view of all traders.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Parma vs Udinese match, specifically the spread as determined by official sources. The platform will verify the result against established sports data providers to ensure accuracy. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to Oct 28, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Parma or Udinese would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about key personnel or changes in coaching staff could also move the market. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed traders could indicate a shift in expectations, causing the price to adjust rapidly. Monitoring these signals can provide insights into potential market movements.