TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 8:31 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between two teams competing in a major Brazilian league. The result will be determined by the final score after the standard playing time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts. Market resolution accounts for potential game cancellations or rescheduling.
The event resolves based on the result of the Paranaense vs Palmeiras professional Brasileiro Serie A soccer match scheduled for October 17, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the respective team wins the match within regular time, or if the match ends in a tie for the Tie market. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the market will resolve to a fair price. The event exclusively considers the result after normal time, with no account for extra time or penalty shootout outcomes. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, which can differ from odds set by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically set their lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market relies on individuals predicting the outcome. Therefore, you may find discrepancies between the two. It’s common to see prediction markets incorporate information and perspectives that sportsbooks might overlook, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities, especially as the event approaches. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's current expectation of that outcome's probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions are correct and lose if they are wrong. This dynamic process creates a market-driven assessment of the likelihood of each possible result in the Paranaense vs Palmeiras match.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Paranaense vs Palmeiras match as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The final score and winner will be used to determine which contracts pay out, and the amount paid will depend on the contract price at the time of resolution. Traders holding winning contracts will receive a payout based on the market's pricing.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to Oct 18, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Paranaense or Palmeiras would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about coaching changes or internal team issues could also play a role. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi could indicate informed activity and shift the market’s probabilities, so monitoring trading activity is crucial.