TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 3:58 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an upcoming professional soccer match between Palmeiras and Vasco da Gama in the Copa do Brasil tournament. The focus is on determining whether Palmeiras wins, Vasco da Gama wins, or the game ends in a tie within regular time. These outcomes reflect the immediate result of the match as it concludes after 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, without considering potential extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event covers three possible outcomes for the Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama Copa do Brasil soccer match scheduled for November 1, 2026: a win for Palmeiras, a win for Vasco da Gama, or a tie. Each market resolves based on the result after 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time, explicitly excluding extra time or penalty kicks. If the match ends in a tie, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. Additionally, if the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as per the event rules. The governing body's official result determines market resolution, and Kalshi disclaims any formal affiliation with the league or its trademarks.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of wisdom than sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective prediction of informed traders. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than traditional forecasts, especially when there's significant public interest and available information. However, sportsbook odds can be useful for comparison, providing an alternative perspective on the likely outcome of the match. It's important to consider both when forming your own opinion about the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the latest information and sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in their predictions, and can influence how quickly prices respond to new information about the Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama match.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The platform will determine the winning outcome based on the final score and any applicable rules governing the match. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the winning outcome will be paid out according to the market price at resolution.
Several signals could significantly move this market before Nov 1, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Palmeiras or Vasco da Gama would likely impact the odds. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the coaches, or even weather conditions on match day could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected news related to team morale or off-field issues could also play a role. Monitoring these factors can help you understand potential shifts in the market and inform your trading decisions.