TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 6:24 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Palmeiras and Corinthians, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold. The match is part of the Brasileiro Serie A league and follows standard timing rules for resolution.
The event resolves based on the goal differential by which either Palmeiras or Corinthians wins the match originally scheduled for October 11, 2026. Four distinct outcome thresholds are defined: Palmeiras winning by more than 2.5 goals, Palmeiras winning by more than 1.5 goals, Corinthians winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Corinthians winning by more than 2.5 goals. The resolution occurs after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Only the final official result of the match determines the outcome, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league or ownership of related trademarks and branding.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, whereas this market relies on individuals trading based on their own research and beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Comparing the two can offer a broader perspective on the likely outcome of the Palmeiras vs Corinthians match.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the spread in the Palmeiras vs Corinthians match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts predicting a certain spread, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information and produce a forecast based on collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final result of the Palmeiras vs Corinthians match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the actual spread achieved in the game, as determined by official game statistics. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution. The platform will verify the result against publicly available data to ensure an accurate and transparent outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 12, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team strategies or coaching decisions could also have an impact. Furthermore, significant shifts in public opinion, as reflected in sports news and analysis, may cause traders to adjust their positions, leading to price fluctuations in this market. Major upsets in other related matches could also indirectly influence trading activity.