TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:07 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Oscar Jose Gutierrez and Yanaki Milev in the Palermo, Italy, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Oscar Jose Gutierrez' if Oscar Jose Gutierrez advances against Yanaki Milev. This market will resolve to 'Yanaki Milev' if Yanaki Milev advances against Oscar Jose Gutierrez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Oscar Jose Gutierrez and Yanaki Milev in the Palermo, Italy, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Oscar Jose Gutierrez' if Oscar Jose Gutierrez advances against Yanaki Milev. This market will resolve to 'Yanaki Milev' if Yanaki Milev advances against Oscar Jose Gutierrez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and analysis that might not be immediately priced into traditional sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set initial odds based on their own models and risk assessment, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs about the outcome. Therefore, you may find differences between the two. It’s common to see prediction markets move more quickly to incorporate new information and adjust probabilities based on collective insight, potentially offering a different perspective than standard betting options.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more people buy shares in a particular outcome, the price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market is entirely driven by supply and demand, meaning the price is determined by the collective actions of traders on the platform, rather than a centralized bookmaker. This creates a dynamic and potentially efficient pricing mechanism.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the boxing match between Oscar Jose Gutierrez and Yanaki Milev, as reported by recognized boxing authorities. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at the time of resolution.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Any news regarding the fighters’ training, health, or potential injuries would likely cause significant movement. Official weigh-in results and pre-match interviews could also shift probabilities. Unexpected changes in betting odds from traditional sportsbooks might prompt traders to reassess their positions. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of either fighter’s chances of winning will likely impact the price of shares in this market, leading to fluctuations in the implied probabilities.