TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 5:35 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Francesco Passaro and Yanaki Milev in the Palermo, originally scheduled for October 10, 2026 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Francesco Passaro' if Francesco Passaro advances against Yanaki Milev. This market will resolve to 'Yanaki Milev' if Yanaki Milev advances against Francesco Passaro. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Francesco Passaro and Yanaki Milev in the Palermo, originally scheduled for October 10, 2026 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Francesco Passaro' if Francesco Passaro advances against Yanaki Milev. This market will resolve to 'Yanaki Milev' if Yanaki Milev advances against Francesco Passaro. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a ‘vig’ or commission into their odds, which represents their profit margin. This market, driven by the collective wisdom of traders on Polymarket, aims to reflect the true probability of an outcome, though discrepancies can and do occur. These differences can arise from varying levels of information, differing opinions, or simply the dynamics of supply and demand within each venue. It’s useful to compare the two to gain a broader understanding of potential outcomes.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the probability of a particular outcome. As more traders buy shares in a specific outcome, the price of those shares increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price of shares indicates the market’s collective forecast. The market is entirely driven by supply and demand; traders are incentivized to accurately assess the likelihood of each outcome, as profitable trades depend on correct predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Palermo tennis match between Francesco Passaro and Yanaki Milev, as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine the winning outcome and distribute payouts to those who correctly predicted the result of the match. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before Oct 17, 2026. Any news regarding player form, such as injuries to either Francesco Passaro or Yanaki Milev, would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions at the tournament location could also affect the perceived probabilities, as could updates on playing surfaces or court conditions. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players leading up to the event could also shift trader sentiment and thus the price of shares in this market.