TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 7:49 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Federico Arnaboldi and Kalin Ivanovski in the Palermo, Italy, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Federico Arnaboldi' if Federico Arnaboldi advances against Kalin Ivanovski. This market will resolve to 'Kalin Ivanovski' if Kalin Ivanovski advances against Federico Arnaboldi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Federico Arnaboldi and Kalin Ivanovski in the Palermo, Italy, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Federico Arnaboldi' if Federico Arnaboldi advances against Kalin Ivanovski. This market will resolve to 'Kalin Ivanovski' if Kalin Ivanovski advances against Federico Arnaboldi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of bettors, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, but may also incorporate a profit margin. This market, driven by user predictions on Polymarket, can sometimes identify discrepancies or provide an alternative view on the likely outcome of the Arnaboldi vs Ivanovski match. It's worth comparing the implied probabilities from both sources to see where opinions diverge and potentially find value.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the Arnaboldi vs Ivanovski match. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe a particular outcome will occur, the higher the price of shares representing that outcome will rise. This dynamic pricing reflects the aggregated predictions of all participants in this market.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Arnaboldi vs Ivanovski match as reported by recognized tennis authorities. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine the winning outcome and distribute payouts accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand how this market will be settled.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market leading up to Oct 12, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or even significant shifts in public perception could impact trader sentiment. Unexpected upsets in other matches involving either Arnaboldi or Ivanovski might also cause traders to reassess their predictions. Furthermore, large volume trades on Polymarket could quickly shift the price, especially if they indicate strong conviction in a particular outcome. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential market movements.