TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 9:05 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Pachuca and Tigres, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold. The match is governed by standard soccer rules, with the final score determined after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
The event resolves based on the goal differential by which either Pachuca or Tigres wins the match. If Pachuca wins by more than 2.5 goals, that specific market resolves to Yes. If Pachuca wins by more than 1.5 goals (but not exceeding 2.5), that corresponding market resolves to Yes. Similarly, if Tigres wins by more than 1.5 goals, its respective market resolves to Yes, and if Tigres wins by more than 2.5 goals, that market resolves to Yes. The match must conclude within 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty kicks are excluded from consideration. All outcomes are independent, meaning each market resolves separately based on its specific threshold.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on statistical models and their own risk assessment, while this market aggregates the beliefs of individuals willing to put their capital at risk. This can lead to discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to impactful news than traditional sportsbooks, and sometimes offer more favorable odds depending on the perceived probabilities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether Pachuca will cover the spread against Tigres. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. As more traders participate, the price converges towards a consensus view of the probability of the event occurring. The current price reflects the market's aggregate assessment of the likelihood of each outcome.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final result of the Pachuca vs Tigres match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether Pachuca covers the spread as defined by the market conditions at the time of trading. The official result, as reported by recognized sports authorities, will determine the winning contracts and trigger payouts to those who correctly predicted the outcome. The market will close prior to the event's completion to prevent manipulation.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Pachuca or Tigres would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about coaching changes or internal team issues could also play a role. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large volume trades on Kalshi itself can shift the price, reflecting changes in market participants’ beliefs about the match’s outcome.