TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$172,394,893
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,821,572,886
404,136
Markets across
40,075
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 2:30 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Oviedo will win its professional La Liga 2 soccer game against Eibar. Currently, the probability of Oviedo winning on Kalshi is 86.0%, with a 12.0% probability of a tie. The resolution source for this market is the result of the Oviedo vs Eibar professional La Liga 2 soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 12, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time – excluding any extra time or penalties. Keep a close watch on the kickoff of the match itself on October 12, 2026, as that will begin the window for determining the market’s outcome.
The markets resolve based on the full-time result of the Oviedo vs Eibar professional La Liga 2 soccer match scheduled for October 12, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A 'Yes' outcome occurs when the specified team achieves a victory within regular time; a tied result triggers the 'Tie' market to resolve as 'Yes'. If the match is canceled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price following defined procedures. Extra time and penalty shootouts do not affect market resolution, which strictly considers the result at the end of regulation time including stoppage minutes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and analysis. As more information becomes available – such as team news or injury reports – the odds on Kalshi may shift in response, potentially offering different value than traditional sportsbooks. It’s common to see prediction markets outperform sportsbook odds in accuracy.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each outcome. The price of a contract directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity influence the price discovery process, ensuring the odds reflect the collective intelligence of the participants trading on Kalshi. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of the likelihood of different results in the Oviedo vs Eibar match.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Oviedo vs Eibar match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. Traders holding contracts on the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on losing outcomes will not. The exact timing of the resolution may vary slightly depending on the availability of official results, but it will occur shortly after the conclusion of the match.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Oviedo or Eibar would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions on match day could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about managerial changes or internal team issues could also move the market. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large trades on Kalshi could create momentum and shift the odds, reflecting changes in perceived probabilities as the match approaches.