TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.4b
24H VOL:
$104,871,197
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,592,701,755
469,827
Markets across
35,657
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
The Black Ball
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 31, 2027
Will The Black Ball win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?
$
Description
This prediction market asks participants to forecast the winner of the Best Adapted Screenplay award at the 99th Academy Awards in 2027. The market covers a range of potential nominees and allows for speculation on which film will be recognized for its adaptation.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms rely on the official announcement of the Best Adapted Screenplay winner at the 99th Academy Awards for resolution.Primary resolution logic: Official Academy Awards website (oscars.org) and live broadcast of the award ceremonyCore resolution logic:
- The market resolves to 'Yes' for the film that wins the Best Adapted Screenplay award.
- If a listed film is not nominated, its corresponding market resolves to 'No'.
- In case of a tie, the alphabetically first nominated film wins.
- If no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Nomination Status: If a listed film does not receive a nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to 'No'.
- Tiebreaker: In the event of a tie for the award, the film whose title comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner for resolution purposes.
- Delayed Announcement: If the Academy fails to announce a winner by June 30, 2027, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
Polymarket
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
The event determines the winner of the Best Adapted Screenplay category at the 99th Academy Awards, scheduled for March 2027. Each market corresponds to a specific film, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that particular film is announced as the award winner during the official ceremony. Only one film will be selected as the winner for this category, and all markets are mutually exclusive—only the market linked to the actual winner will resolve positively, with all others resolving negatively. The Academy Awards, also known as the Oscars, is the most prestigious film industry awards ceremony in the United States, and this category honors films adapted from existing material such as books, plays, or other media. Participants are speculating on which adaptation will be recognized, based on factors like critical reception, commercial success, and historical trends of the voting body.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be influenced by biases or studio narratives, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who have skin in the game. The prices here represent what people are willing to bet on, providing a real-time assessment of perceived probabilities. While not always perfectly aligned, the market often proves more accurate than initial expert predictions, especially as more information becomes available. This is because traders continuously update their views based on new developments, leading to a dynamic and responsive forecast.
Prices for the Best Adapted Screenplay market can diverge between Polymarket and Kalshi due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has a different user base with varying levels of expertise and information, leading to differing opinions. Trading volume can also be unevenly distributed, causing price discrepancies. Furthermore, the platforms may have slightly different rules or fee structures that influence trading behavior. These variations can create arbitrage opportunities, but ultimately reflect the unique dynamics of each market. The spread between the platforms is currently 4.0.
This market resolves around Dec 31, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner of the Best Adapted Screenplay award, as announced at the official Academy Awards ceremony, will determine the resolution. The market will reflect the official results published by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Traders should monitor official announcements for the final determination of the winning film, as this will be the basis for settlement of this market.
Several events could significantly impact this market. Early critical reviews of potential contenders, especially those adapted from popular books or plays, will likely cause price shifts. Major award nominations, such as Golden Globes or Critics Choice Awards, can also serve as strong signals. Any controversies surrounding a film or its creators could negatively affect its chances, while positive buzz from film festivals could boost a film’s prospects. The release of trailers and marketing campaigns can also influence trader sentiment, and ultimately, the prices within this market.