TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.4b
24H VOL:
$104,871,197
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,592,701,755
469,827
Markets across
35,657
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
John Malkovich
- Kalshi
John Malkovich - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 31, 2027
Will John Malkovich win Best Actor at the Oscars?
$
Intro
This market tracks whether Will John Malkovich will win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards. Currently, Kalshi gives him a 41.0% probability, while Matt Damon is at 21.0%. The market resolves based on whether John Malkovich has won Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, as determined by the official results of the awards ceremony. Keep an eye on the nominations announced by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, expected around January 2027, as these will significantly impact the market’s trajectory.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes if any of the specified actors wins the Best Actor award at the 99th Academy Awards, expected to be held in March 2027. Each actor outcome is independent; if any one of them wins the award, their corresponding market resolves to Yes. A tie outcome also resolves to Yes if the Academy announces a tied result for Best Actor.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders place buy and sell orders for contracts on each potential winner, and the price fluctuates based on supply and demand. A higher price indicates a greater probability of that actor winning, while a lower price suggests a lower probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth shows the volume of contracts available at different price points, giving traders insight into the level of conviction behind each prediction. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly.
This market resolves around Dec 31, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official announcement of the Best Actor winner at the Academy Awards ceremony. The market will determine which actor was officially awarded the Oscar, and contracts on the winning actor will pay out to contract holders. The outcome is determined by the official results announced by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Several events could significantly impact this market. Major awards show wins—such as the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, or the Screen Actors Guild Awards—often shift probabilities as they signal momentum. Critical reviews, particularly from influential publications, can also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected controversies surrounding a nominee, or a surge in positive publicity for another, could lead to substantial price movements. Finally, any major campaign efforts or endorsements could also affect the odds in this market as we approach Dec 31, 2027.
