TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 9:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an MLS soccer match between Orlando and DC United, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It considers different thresholds for goal differentials to determine the result. The resolution depends solely on the final score after regular time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks.
The event evaluates various goal-differential scenarios for the Orlando vs DC United MLS match scheduled for October 17, 2026. Four distinct outcomes are possible: Orlando winning by more than 2.5 goals, Orlando winning by more than 1.5 goals, DC United winning by more than 1.5 goals, or DC United winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions are based exclusively on the score after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty shootouts. The event operates independently of official league affiliations, and all trademarks referenced belong to their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. This can lead to prediction markets being more accurate, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. However, sportsbook odds are readily accessible and often offer promotional incentives, which can influence where people place their bets. It is useful to compare both to form a well-rounded opinion.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the final spread of the Orlando vs DC United match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders can set their own bid and ask prices, and the market continuously adjusts to reflect new information and changing sentiment. The more traders believe a particular spread is likely, the higher the price of contracts representing that outcome will climb.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread of the Orlando vs DC United match, as officially recorded by sports data providers, will determine the winning contracts. The market will settle based on the actual result of the game, and all winning contracts will be paid out accordingly. It’s important to monitor the event’s progress as the resolution date approaches to understand how the market may react to late-breaking news.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Orlando or DC United would likely cause price movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if severe weather is expected, could also influence the market. Unexpected coaching decisions or tactical shifts announced before the match could also shift trader sentiment. Finally, any significant public information about team morale or internal issues could also contribute to changes in the price of contracts for this market.