TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 1:29 AM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks how many points each team scores in an upcoming college football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point threshold for a team, resolving based on whether the team's actual score meets or exceeds that threshold.
All markets resolve based on the official final point totals for Oregon State and Fresno State in their college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. For each market, if the specified team scores over the designated point threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, the markets remain open and resolve according to the final result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific point thresholds set in individual markets.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading on their own information and beliefs. As a result, prediction markets sometimes offer more accurate probabilities, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions on team performance, injuries, or other relevant factors.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different team totals. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that total occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect a collective assessment of the likely outcome. The market is highly liquid, allowing traders to enter and exit positions easily. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market efficiently incorporates new information.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final team totals for both Oregon State and Fresno State are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official statistics published following the completion of the game. Any adjustments or corrections made to the official statistics will be reflected in the final resolution. The market will settle to 100 for the correct team totals, and 0 for all other possibilities.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Oregon State or Fresno State would likely cause price movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse playing conditions, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in team strategy could also move the market. Finally, any late-breaking news or analysis that alters public perception of the teams’ chances of success could lead to substantial shifts in the market prices.