TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 12:06 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Orange County and Phoenix Rising, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event resolves based on the goal differential between Orange County and Phoenix Rising in their scheduled USL Championship game on October 17, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Four distinct outcome thresholds are evaluated: Orange County winning by more than 2.5 goals, Orange County winning by more than 1.5 goals, Phoenix Rising winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Phoenix Rising winning by more than 2.5 goals. The market resolves to 'Yes' for the specific condition that is met, with the largest goal differential taking precedence if multiple conditions are satisfied. All resolutions exclude extra time and penalty phases, focusing solely on regular time results. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a wider range of information and opinions. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can be more sensitive to late-breaking news or shifts in public sentiment. Comparing the two can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the expected outcome of the Orange County vs Phoenix Rising match.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the spread in the Orange County vs Phoenix Rising match. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and provide a real-time assessment of the likely result.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread of the Orange County vs Phoenix Rising match, as determined by official sources, will be used to determine which contracts payout. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will not. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome based on the actual results of the match.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Orange County or Phoenix Rising teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, coaching decisions, or even weather conditions could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule or venue could also cause price fluctuations. Monitoring these types of events will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market and capitalize on new information as it becomes available.