TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 2:04 AM EST
Polymarket
More markets for the USL Championship game, scheduled for October 3 at 10:00 PM ET.
More markets for the USL Championship game, scheduled for October 3 at 10:00 PM ET.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market’s prices are driven by actual money being wagered. This dynamic can lead to discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to breaking news or changes in team conditions than traditional sportsbooks, creating opportunities for informed traders.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its shares will climb, and vice versa. This creates a dynamic pricing system that reflects the aggregated predictions of everyone trading on Polymarket.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be determined by the official result of the Orange County SC vs. Monterey Bay FC match, as reported by a trusted sports data source. The platform will verify the final score and declare the winning outcome based on this publicly available information. Traders who correctly predicted the result will be eligible for payout based on their share holdings at the time of resolution.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries, suspensions, or changes in team lineups would likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected weather conditions that could affect gameplay are also potential catalysts. Furthermore, shifts in public perception, driven by expert analysis or media coverage, could influence trading activity. Finally, even in-game events during the match itself, such as early goals or red cards, could lead to substantial movements in the market price as traders react to the unfolding situation.