TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 8:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This group resolves based on the outcome of a soccer match between Operário Ferroviário EC and Athletic Club in the Brazilian Serie B league. Markets ask whether either team will win, or if the match will end in a draw.
This event is for the upcoming Brazil Serie B game, scheduled for Friday, October 23, 2026 between Operário Ferroviário EC and Athletic Club.
The event resolves based on the full-time result of the Ferroviario vs Athletic Club Sjdr Brasileiro Serie B soccer match scheduled for October 23, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Three distinct outcomes are possible: a win for Ferroviario, a win for Athletic Club Sjdr, or a tie. Each outcome has a corresponding market that resolves to 'Yes' if that specific result occurs. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price. The resolution excludes extra time and penalty shootouts, focusing solely on the result at the end of regular playing time.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of participants, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to profit from margins, while this market allows traders to directly express their beliefs. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment diverges from expert opinion. While sportsbooks may initially set the market, prediction markets can dynamically adjust based on new information and changing perceptions, potentially offering more accurate probabilities as the event approaches.
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi for the Operário vs. Athletic match may differ due to variations in user base, trading activity, and market-specific rules. Each platform attracts a different pool of traders with varying levels of expertise and information. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform can influence price discovery; higher volume generally leads to tighter spreads. Differences in fees and market-making incentives can also contribute to price discrepancies. These factors combine to create distinct market dynamics on each platform, even for the same underlying event.