TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Open de España presented by Madrid End of Round 3 Leader
kalshi

Who will lead after Round 3?

Volume:
$73,324

Joe Dean

 - Kalshi

Joe Dean - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 10, 2026

Closed: Oct 10, 12:29 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Joe Dean

View
50%
Yes 50¢No 50¢
—
N/A
$20,210
N/A
N/A
$4,208
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
kalshi

Grant Forrest

View
50%
Yes 50¢No 50¢
—
N/A
$14,380
N/A
N/A
$8,122
Settled
ResolvedResult not available
kalshi

Victor Perez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,965
N/A
N/A
$5,703
Settled
No
kalshi

Angel Ayora Fanegas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,808
N/A
N/A
$5,807
Settled
No
kalshi

Jacob Skov Olesen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,785
N/A
N/A
$2,803
Settled
No
kalshi

Niklas Lemke

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,582
N/A
N/A
$4,582
Settled
No
kalshi

Joel Girrbach

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,414
N/A
N/A
$4,399
Settled
No
kalshi

Jeff Winther

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,227
N/A
N/A
$3,227
Settled
No
kalshi

Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,025
N/A
N/A
$2,025
Settled
No
kalshi

Connor Syme

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,597
N/A
N/A
$1,597
Settled
No
kalshi

Sean Crocker

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,403
N/A
N/A
$1,403
Settled
No
kalshi

Nathan Kimsey

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,403
N/A
N/A
$1,403
Settled
No
kalshi

Martin Couvra

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$942
N/A
N/A
$942
Settled
No
kalshi

Sergio Garcia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$841
N/A
N/A
$708
Settled
No
kalshi

Daniel Hillier

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$644
N/A
N/A
$644
Settled
No
kalshi

Tom Vaillant

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$451
N/A
N/A
$451
Settled
No
kalshi

Oliver Lindell

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$274
N/A
N/A
$274
Settled
No
kalshi

Matthew Jordan

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$234
N/A
N/A
$234
Settled
No
kalshi

Mikael Lindberg

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

Ludvig Aberg

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$41
N/A
N/A
$21
Settled
No
kalshi

Daniel Brown

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$0
N/A
N/A
$0
Settled
No
kalshi

Thomas Aiken

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Marcus Armitage

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Sam Bairstow

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 132

Description

The 2026 Open de España presented by Madrid is a prestigious golf tournament where participants compete over multiple rounds. Bettors can speculate on which golfer will hold the lead after the third round, with specific rules governing payouts in case of ties among competitors.

Kalshi

Each market corresponds to a specific golfer, and the outcome resolves based on whether that golfer is the sole leader at the end of Round 3 of the 2026 Open de España presented by Madrid. If the designated golfer is the unambiguous leader, bets on 'Yes' win outright, and 'No' bets lose. Should multiple golfers share the lead—including the designated golfer—'Yes' bets receive a prorated payout of $1 divided by the number of tied leaders (rounded down to the nearest cent), while 'No' bets lose the standard stake. These rules apply uniformly across all markets, ensuring consistent resolution regardless of which golfer is specified.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Open de España leader market tracks the current odds for each golfer to be leading after Round 3, the 24-hour trading volume, and a history of how the probabilities have shifted over time. Currently, the total volume for this market is $73,324, with $72,029 traded in the last 24 hours. You can see how traders are assessing each player’s chances and the market’s overall sentiment. The dashboard provides a real-time view of the collective prediction on who will be at the top of the leaderboard.

Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert opinions, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs, potentially incorporating information not fully captured by sportsbooks. Discrepancies can arise due to differing levels of information, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the same data. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to news and events, potentially leading to odds movements that diverge from those offered by sportsbooks.

This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine which golfer is officially reported as the leader at the conclusion of Round 3 of the Open de España. The official leaderboard published by the tournament organizers will serve as the basis for verifying the outcome. Traders will be able to see the final results reflected in their account balances once the resolution is complete.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding golfer health, changes in weather conditions at the course, or a golfer’s performance during the ongoing rounds could all cause shifts in probabilities. A strong or weak performance by a leading contender in the early stages of Round 3 would likely trigger substantial movement. Unexpected course conditions or even a significant change in strategy by a player could also influence trading activity and alter the odds. Monitoring these signals is key to understanding potential market movements.