TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 11:10 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Once Caldas will win their professional Colombian Liga DIMAYOR soccer game against Llaneros. Currently, Kalshi gives Once Caldas a 97.0% probability of winning, while a tie is priced at 2.0%. The market resolves based on the outcome of the match as determined by the official result – specifically, if Once Caldas wins within 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding any extra time or penalties. Keep an eye on the match itself, as the market will resolve following the conclusion of the game originally scheduled for Oct 9, 2026, with final settlement expected by the resolution date of 2026-10-10.
The market resolves based on the outcome of the Once Caldas vs Llaneros professional Colombian Liga DIMAYOR soccer game scheduled for Oct 9, 2026. If Once Caldas wins after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, that market resolves to Yes. If Llaneros wins under the same conditions, its market resolves to Yes. If the game ends in a tie after regulation time, the Tie market resolves to Yes. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours away from the original date, all markets resolve to a fair price.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs, potentially leading to a more accurate assessment of probabilities. Discrepancies can arise due to differing levels of information, biases, or simply variations in opinion. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, whereas sportsbook odds may be slower to change. Comparing the two can offer valuable insights into public perception and potential value.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more people buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume provide insights into the level of conviction behind each prediction. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis, creating a dynamic and efficient pricing mechanism.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Once Caldas vs Llaneros match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine the winning outcome and settle all outstanding contracts. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand how this market will be settled.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 10, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, changes in coaching staff, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving these teams could also impact perceptions of their relative strengths. Major announcements about team strategies or player availability are likely to cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could signal a shift in expectations and drive the market in a particular direction.