TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Olimpico vs. Lanus
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Kalshi
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 11, 2026
Time left: 08d:19h:20m
$
This group centers on the outcome of a basketball game between Olimpico and Lanus in the Argentina LNB league. The markets aim to predict which team will win the game, with potential adjustments for cancellations or abandoned matches.
In the upcoming LNB game between Olimpico and Lanus, originally scheduled for Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): If the Olimpico win, the market will resolve to "Olimpico". If the Lanus win, the market will resolve to "Lanus". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Friday, November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
The event features two parallel markets resolving based on which team wins the designated basketball game. Each market corresponds to one team's potential victory, resolving to 'Yes' only if that specific team is declared the official winner. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of its original time, both markets remain active and resolve according to the final result. Should the game be cancelled or fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, reflecting uncertainty or incompleteness of the contest. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league or its entities.
Prediction market odds, like those found for the Olimpico vs. Lanus match, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the nature of how they are determined. Sportsbooks set odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, incorporating a profit margin. Prediction markets, however, are driven by the collective intelligence of traders who buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. This can lead to more accurate probabilities, especially as more information becomes available. The wisdom of the crowd often corrects initial mispricings, making this market a potentially valuable source of information.
Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi for the Olimpico vs. Lanus match may diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk appetites and information sets, leading to independent price discovery. Trading fees and platform-specific rules can also contribute to discrepancies. Furthermore, differing liquidity levels on each platform can amplify price movements; lower volume on one platform might result in greater price sensitivity to individual trades. These factors combine to create potentially different implied probabilities for the same event across the two venues.
This market resolves around Nov 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the Olimpico vs. Lanus match, as reported by official sources, will determine the winning outcome. Traders who correctly predicted the result will be paid out according to the market's contract terms. It’s important to monitor official sources as the match progresses to understand how the outcome will be verified and when resolution will occur. This market provides a unique way to assess the probability of the match’s result before it happens.
Several signals could significantly impact this market before it resolves around Nov 12, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Olimpico or Lanus would likely cause shifts in the odds. Major tactical changes announced by either team’s coach, or unexpected changes in team form during preceding matches, could also influence predictions. Even broader factors, such as weather conditions expected on match day, or significant media coverage impacting public perception, could move the market. Ultimately, any information that alters the perceived probability of either team winning will likely be reflected in trading activity.