TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 7:19 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on the point differential in the final quarter of a college football game, allowing participants to speculate on how strongly either team might perform in the last period of play. Outcomes are determined solely by points scored during the 4th quarter, excluding any overtime periods.
All markets resolve based exclusively on points scored during the 4th quarter (excluding overtime) of the Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt college football game scheduled for October 10, 2026. Each market has a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team for a 'Yes' resolution. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the official final result from that resumed game. Should the game fail to start within the 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, reflecting the uncertainty and preventing unresolved outcomes. The markets cover varying thresholds of victory for both Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, allowing participants to assess different levels of dominance in the final quarter.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven by traders directly expressing their beliefs about the game's outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously buying and selling contracts in both markets. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither guarantees the actual result.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring in the fourth quarter of the Ole Miss versus Vanderbilt game. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the likely outcome. The current top market on Kalshi is for Vanderbilt wins 4Q by over 10.5 points.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread in the fourth quarter of the Ole Miss versus Vanderbilt football game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective and transparent process. Traders will then receive payouts based on whether their purchased contracts align with the actual result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Ole Miss or Vanderbilt teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team’s style of play, could also impact trading activity. Finally, even late-breaking news about team morale or coaching decisions could shift the market as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions about the final fourth-quarter spread.