TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 11:45 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting whether a specific team will win by a certain margin in the final quarter of a college football game. The outcomes depend solely on the points scored during the fourth quarter, excluding any overtime periods.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the fourth quarter (excluding overtime) of the Ole Miss vs Texas college football game scheduled for October 24, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific point threshold that determines a 'Yes' outcome—either Texas or Ole Miss must exceed the designated margin of victory during that quarter. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, the markets remain active and resolve according to the final result. Should the game fail to start within the 48-hour window, the markets settle at a fair price. All markets exclusively consider points scored in the fourth quarter, with no regard to overtime scoring.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of forecasters, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by professional oddsmakers, while this market is driven by individual traders expressing their beliefs about the likely outcome. It’s common to see initial discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can incorporate information and insights that sportsbooks may not immediately factor in. Over time, these odds tend to converge as new information becomes available and more people participate in this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the fourth quarter. The price of each contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome, as they profit if their predictions are correct. The market dynamically adjusts as more traders enter and exit positions, reflecting the evolving consensus on the likely spread. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all traders on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread for the fourth quarter of the Ole Miss vs Texas game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing sports authority. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will not. The platform will verify the outcome and distribute payouts accordingly, ensuring a transparent and reliable resolution process.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Ole Miss or Texas would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions impacting the passing or running game, could also shift predictions. Late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could also play a role. Even public sentiment, as reflected in social media or expert analysis, can contribute to price fluctuations in this market as traders react to new information.