TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 1:22 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Maxim Mrva and Francesco Maestrelli in the Olbia, originally scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Maxim Mrva' if Maxim Mrva advances against Francesco Maestrelli. This market will resolve to 'Francesco Maestrelli' if Francesco Maestrelli advances against Maxim Mrva. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Maxim Mrva and Francesco Maestrelli in the Olbia, originally scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Maxim Mrva' if Maxim Mrva advances against Francesco Maestrelli. This market will resolve to 'Francesco Maestrelli' if Francesco Maestrelli advances against Maxim Mrva. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. This can lead to discrepancies, particularly when public sentiment strongly favors one outcome. It's common to see prediction markets react more quickly to new information or shifts in perceived probability than sportsbooks, as traders can instantly adjust their positions. Comparing the two can be a useful exercise in understanding differing viewpoints on the Mrva vs Maestrelli match.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a particular outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price of shares will fluctuate, reflecting the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market accurately represents the collective prediction of the crowd regarding the Mrva vs Maestrelli match.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Mrva vs Maestrelli match, as reported by a recognized sports authority. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders who correctly predicted the result will be paid out according to their share holdings, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their shares. The resolution process aims to be transparent and based on objective evidence.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market before Oct 22, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in coaching strategies, or unexpected performance in prior matches could shift trader sentiment. Publicly available analysis from sports commentators or analysts could also impact predictions. Furthermore, significant betting activity on sportsbooks could draw attention to this market and influence trading decisions. Unexpected weather conditions, if applicable to the match venue, might also play a role in how traders assess the probabilities for the Mrva vs Maestrelli match.