TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 10:39 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Mathys Erhard and Lorenzo Rocco in the Olbia, Italy, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 6:20AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mathys Erhard' if Mathys Erhard advances against Lorenzo Rocco. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Rocco' if Lorenzo Rocco advances against Mathys Erhard. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Mathys Erhard and Lorenzo Rocco in the Olbia, Italy, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 6:20AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mathys Erhard' if Mathys Erhard advances against Lorenzo Rocco. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Rocco' if Lorenzo Rocco advances against Mathys Erhard. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of wisdom than sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the collective intelligence of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. Often, prediction markets can be more accurate than traditional betting markets, especially when there is a lot of information available and a diverse group of participants. However, sportsbook odds can still be a useful data point when considering potential outcomes.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting growing confidence. Conversely, selling pressure drives prices down. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the latest information and collective judgment of those trading.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Erhard vs Rocco match as reported by the governing body. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine the winning outcome and distribute funds to those who correctly predicted the result. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in coaching strategies, or unexpected developments in the lead-up to the match could significantly shift market sentiment. Publicly available analysis from sports commentators and experts could also impact trading activity. Additionally, large trades by individual participants could cause noticeable price movements. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone looking to capitalize on shifts in the market’s perception of the Erhard vs Rocco match.