TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 10:17 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Maks Kasnikowski and Cezar Cretu in the Olbia, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Maks Kasnikowski' if Maks Kasnikowski advances against Cezar Cretu. This market will resolve to 'Cezar Cretu' if Cezar Cretu advances against Maks Kasnikowski. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Maks Kasnikowski and Cezar Cretu in the Olbia, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Maks Kasnikowski' if Maks Kasnikowski advances against Cezar Cretu. This market will resolve to 'Cezar Cretu' if Cezar Cretu advances against Maks Kasnikowski. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of forecasters, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market aggregates the views of individuals incentivized to make accurate predictions. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Examining these differences can be insightful, as prediction markets sometimes identify information not fully incorporated into sportsbook lines, though this is not always the case.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the market price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform’s design incentivizes accurate predictions, as traders profit when their forecasts align with the eventual result. This dynamic pricing allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Kasnikowski vs Cretu match, as determined by the governing sporting body. The platform will verify the result against publicly available data to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be entitled to a payout based on the final market price at the time of resolution, while those holding shares in the losing outcome will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to Oct 19, 2026. Any news regarding the players’ form, potential injuries, or changes in coaching strategy could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in related matches or tournaments could also impact predictions. Furthermore, major announcements about the event itself, such as venue changes or rule modifications, could introduce new uncertainty and volatility. Monitoring these signals and assessing their potential impact is crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market.