TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 12:56 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Lorenzo Carboni will advance against Mackenzie McDonald in their tennis match in Olbia, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026. Currently, Polymarket gives a 99.6% probability to Olbia: Lorenzo Carboni vs Mackenzie McDonald, with a 0.1% probability assigned to Olbia: Completed Match: Lorenzo Carboni vs Mackenzie McDonald. The resolution source for this market is the official ATP Tour website at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep an eye on the match progress, as this market will resolve based on the outcome reported following the match’s completion, with a resolution date estimate of 2026-10-19.
This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Carboni and Mackenzie McDonald in the Olbia, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Carboni' if Lorenzo Carboni advances against Mackenzie McDonald. This market will resolve to 'Mackenzie McDonald' if Mackenzie McDonald advances against Lorenzo Carboni. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of wisdom than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. As a result, you may find discrepancies between the two. Generally, prediction markets tend to be more accurate than traditional polls or expert opinions, but the difference between this market and sportsbook odds can vary significantly depending on the event and the information available to both groups of bettors. It's useful to compare them to get a broader perspective.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding shares will climb. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of those trading on Polymarket regarding the Carboni vs McDonald match.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Carboni vs McDonald match as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The platform will determine the winning outcome based on this official result. Traders who correctly predicted the result will be paid out according to the final share price at the time of resolution, while those who bet on the losing outcome will forfeit their shares.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or even significant shifts in public opinion could cause the odds to move. Unexpected announcements about either Lorenzo Carboni or Mackenzie McDonald’s form, fitness, or strategy could also impact trading. Major upsets in other related matches, or even broader trends in tennis betting, might also contribute to changes in the market price. Monitoring these signals can provide insights into potential shifts in market sentiment before the Oct 19, 2026 resolution.