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Closed: Oct 31, 9:46 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on determining which team will score more points in a specific quarter of a college football game between Oklahoma State and Iowa State. The outcome depends solely on the performance during the third quarter, ignoring the overall game result or other quarters.
The market resolves based on which team scores more points in the third quarter of the Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. If Iowa State scores more points in that quarter, the market resolves to Yes for Iowa State. If Oklahoma State scores more points, the market resolves to Yes for Oklahoma State. If both teams score the same number of points, the market resolves to Yes for the Tie outcome. Postponements are handled by allowing the market to remain open if the game starts within 48 hours of the original time; otherwise, it resolves to a fair price. Only points scored during the third quarter count toward the outcome.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of people believe one team is more likely to win the 3rd quarter than sportsbooks suggest, the price for that outcome will move accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts leading up to the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome – in this case, Oklahoma St. winning the 3rd quarter or Iowa St. winning the 3rd quarter. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, these prices dynamically adjust, providing a real-time assessment of the likely 3rd quarter winner.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the official result of which team won the 3rd quarter of the Oklahoma St. vs Iowa St. game will determine the winning contract. The platform will verify the result against official game statistics and sources to ensure accuracy and finalize the market’s settlement. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Oklahoma St. or Iowa St. would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they favor one team's playing style, could also shift the market. Furthermore, in-game performance during the first half of the game, such as a dominant offensive showing by one team, could lead to substantial price adjustments as traders react to the unfolding events and reassess the likelihood of each outcome.