TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 11:04 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of the second half of a college football game between Oklahoma State and Iowa State, specifically how many points each team might win by during that period. The markets cover a range of possible point differentials, allowing participants to bet on various degrees of victory for either team in the latter half of the game.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the second half (including overtime) of the Oklahoma St. vs Iowa St. college football game scheduled for Oct 31, 2026. For markets where Oklahoma St. must win by a specified margin, resolution occurs only if Oklahoma St. achieves that margin in the second half; otherwise, the market resolves as a loss. Conversely, for markets where Iowa St. must win by a specified margin, resolution depends on Iowa St. meeting or exceeding that margin in the second half. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the final official result of that game. If the game fails to start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, meaning they settle based on the most accurate assessment of outcomes given the available information at that time. Each market has a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded for a 'Yes' resolution, with thresholds ranging from narrow margins like over 2.5 points to larger margins such as over 23.5 points.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows traders to express their own informed opinions. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it could indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither guarantees the actual result.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, creating a dynamic price discovery process. The current price is determined by the highest bid and lowest ask that are matched in the order book, and volume indicates the level of agreement or disagreement among traders.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread for the second half of the Oklahoma St. vs Iowa St. game will be used to determine whether Iowa St. won the 2nd half by over 7.5 points, fulfilling the conditions for a payout. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and verified against credible public sources, ensuring a transparent and accurate outcome for all participants.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, coaching changes, or team performance could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions or even significant pre-game analysis from sports commentators could also play a role. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi could indicate informed activity and cause price fluctuations. Monitoring these signals and events can help you understand potential shifts in the perceived probability of Iowa St. winning the 2nd half by the required margin.