TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 9:16 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting the outcome of a specific segment of a college football game between Ohio State and USC. It evaluates whether either team will achieve a significant point differential advantage during the second quarter of play.
The event determines whether Ohio State or USC secures a specified point spread advantage during the second quarter of their college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. Multiple markets exist with varying point thresholds—ranging from over 2.5 to over 10.5 points—for both teams' potential victories in that quarter. All markets exclusively consider points scored during the second quarter, disregarding the full game's outcome. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, the markets resolve based on the official result of that played game. Should the game fail to start within the 48-hour window, the markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants under these specific conditions.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. If a significant discrepancy emerges between this market and sportsbook lines, it could indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities as perceived by different groups.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more people buy contracts predicting a certain spread, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current top market on Kalshi is for Ohio St. to win the 2nd quarter by over 2.5 points, though probabilities are subject to change as trading continues.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final second quarter spread is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the game’s governing body. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the contract price at resolution, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their investment. It’s important to monitor the game closely as it progresses to understand how the market is reacting to real-time events.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Ohio State or USC teams would likely cause a shift in the spread. In-game performance during the first quarter, such as a dominant offensive drive or a crucial turnover, could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions, or even significant pre-game analysis from respected sports commentators, could also move the market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market before Nov 1, 2026.