TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 5:16 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Ohio State or Iowa in the first half of their upcoming college football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team during the first half to resolve as 'Yes'.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the first half of the Ohio St. vs Iowa college football game scheduled for Oct 3, 2026. For markets where Ohio State wins by a specified margin (e.g., over 23.5 points), resolution occurs if Ohio State's first-half point differential exceeds that threshold. Conversely, markets specifying Iowa's victory by a certain margin (e.g., over 2.5 points) resolve if Iowa achieves that differential. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the official first-half result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific outcome thresholds.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their lines based on their own models and risk assessment, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe the sportsbook's line is inaccurate, the price in this market will move accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts closer to game time. Comparing the two can offer a broader perspective on the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. Traders are essentially betting on whether the actual first-half spread will be above or below the contract's spread. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who buy contracts predicting a particular spread, the higher the price will rise, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to accurately reflect the collective prediction of market participants.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first-half spread of the Ohio State-Iowa game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final, official spread as determined by the game's governing body. The market will settle to 100 for the contract corresponding to the actual spread, and 0 for all other contracts. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout of 100 minus the commission paid when purchasing the contract.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. News regarding injuries to key players on either the Ohio State or Iowa teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favorable to one team's style of play, could also shift predictions. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or team morale could also move the market. Finally, any major shifts in public perception, reflected in polls or expert analysis, could influence trader behavior and cause the price to fluctuate.