TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 9:49 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the outcome of a professional Overwatch match between two teams, MURASH GAMING and VARREL, scheduled for October 12, 2026, as part of the OCS Japan Stage 3 tournament. The result depends solely on which team secures a victory in the match. If the match does not start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, or is cancelled or forfeited before play begins, the market adjusts to reflect fair value based on prevailing conditions.
The event determines the winner of an Overwatch match between MURASH GAMING and VARREL in the OCS Japan Stage 3 tournament on October 12, 2026. If MURASH GAMING wins, its corresponding market resolves to Yes; if VARREL wins, its market resolves to Yes. Should the match be postponed beyond 48 hours without starting, cancelled before play begins, or forfeited prior to any gameplay, both markets resolve to the fair market price. If the match starts but is later forfeited, the result follows the official outcome declared by the tournament organizer or governing body.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the collective wisdom of traders. If a significant number of traders believe VARREL has a higher chance of winning than implied by sportsbook odds, the price will adjust accordingly. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of a continuously updating market. It’s important to consider both sources when forming your own assessment of the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders can buy 'yes' contracts, betting that VARREL will win, or sell 'no' contracts, betting against them. The price of each contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy 'yes' contracts, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to reflect the evolving beliefs of all participants regarding the likelihood of VARREL’s victory.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the OCS Japan Stage 3 match between MURASH GAMING and VARREL. The winning team, as declared by the official tournament organizers, will determine whether the 'yes' or 'no' contracts pay out. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand the market’s settlement.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the match concludes. Any news regarding player form, team strategies, or unexpected roster changes for either MURASH GAMING or VARREL could significantly shift trader sentiment. Major upsets in other matches within the OCS Japan Stage 3 tournament might also affect perceptions of team strength. Furthermore, in-game performance during the match itself, such as early map wins or dominant individual plays, could trigger rapid price adjustments as traders react to the unfolding events.