TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 12:12 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Oakland Roots SC and San Antonio, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different winning margins in the Oakland Roots SC versus San Antonio USL Championship soccer match scheduled for October 10, 2026. Four distinct outcomes are considered based on the goal differential: Oakland Roots SC winning by more than 2.5 goals, Oakland Roots SC winning by more than 1.5 goals, San Antonio winning by more than 1.5 goals, and San Antonio winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions are determined solely by the final score after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty kicks. The event explicitly states that Kalshi, the platform hosting this market, holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, designed to guarantee a profit for the bookmaker. This market, however, is driven purely by the collective predictions of traders, aiming to reflect the true probability of the outcome. While sportsbooks may initially set lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, this market dynamically adjusts as new information and opinions emerge. Discrepancies can arise due to differing risk assessments and the influence of public sentiment.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of success. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth, or the number of buy and sell orders at various price points, provides insights into the potential price movement and liquidity. Essentially, the price discovery process is entirely decentralized and driven by supply and demand.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Oakland Roots vs San Antonio match, specifically the spread as determined by official match statistics. The platform will verify the result against publicly available data to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence trading activity and move this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or unexpected weather conditions could significantly impact the perceived probabilities. Furthermore, shifts in public opinion, fueled by media coverage or social media discussions, can also drive price movements. Game-day performance, early match statistics, and even in-game events like red cards or penalties could all contribute to fluctuations in the market as traders react to the unfolding events and adjust their predictions.