TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:01 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses exclusively on the second half performance of the New York Jets and Chicago Bears in their scheduled game. Outcomes are determined solely by the point differential in the latter half of play, excluding any points scored in the first half.
All markets resolve based exclusively on the point differential occurring in the second half of play (including any overtime periods) of the specified NFL game between the New York Jets and the Chicago Bears. Each market corresponds to a specific point threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team during this timeframe for the market to resolve as 'Yes'. If the winning team does not meet or exceed the specified threshold, the market resolves as 'No'. Only points scored in the second half count toward these outcomes, rendering first-half performance irrelevant to resolution.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the 'wisdom of the crowd,' potentially incorporating information and perspectives not fully captured by traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbooks set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, this market allows a broader range of participants to express their beliefs, which can lead to differing probabilities. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. However, as game day approaches, the odds on Kalshi and sportsbook lines tend to converge, as both attempt to accurately predict the outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second half. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more people buy contracts predicting a certain spread, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform facilitates this price discovery process, allowing traders to express their views and creating a dynamic market for predicting the Jets-Bears second half spread. The current price indicates what the collective market believes is the most likely outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread difference in the second half of the Jets versus Bears game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The official result, as reported by a trusted sports data source, will dictate the winning spread and trigger the payout of corresponding contracts on Kalshi. The resolution process is designed to be objective and based on publicly available information regarding the game’s final score.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Jets or the Bears would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also shift the odds. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could also move the market. Finally, public betting trends and shifts in overall sentiment, as reflected in media coverage and social media, can all contribute to price fluctuations in this market on Kalshi.