TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 3:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the second quarter of a football game between two teams. Each market corresponds to a specific margin of victory, determining whether one team outperforms the other by a certain number of points during that quarter alone.
These markets resolve based on the point difference between the New York Giants and Washington Commanders exclusively during the second quarter of their game scheduled for October 11, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning team's margin of victory, ranging from narrow leads of over 2.5 points to larger margins exceeding 10.5 points. All outcomes are determined solely by points scored in the second quarter, with no consideration given to the overall game result or points from other quarters. The resolution hinges on whether the winning team surpasses the specified point differential threshold within that quarter.
Generally, prediction markets like Kalshi often reflect information beyond what's captured in traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to be accurate. You may find that the odds here incorporate factors like injury news, weather conditions, or even subtle shifts in team morale that haven't fully been priced into sportsbook lines. It’s common to see differences, though they often converge closer to game time.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the 2nd quarter. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, leading to a dynamic price discovery process. The more a particular spread is traded, the more confidence the market has in that outcome, and the more liquid that contract becomes.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread for the 2nd quarter of the Giants-Commanders game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle to 100 if the actual spread falls within the range of the winning contract, and 0 for any losing contracts. The resolution will reflect the official result as reported by the governing sports league, ensuring a clear and objective determination of the outcome for this market.
Several factors could significantly impact the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Giants or Commanders would likely cause a shift in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team's style of play, could also move the market. Unexpected coaching decisions or even pre-game reports about team morale or strategy could influence trader sentiment. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and drive price fluctuations.