TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
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2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
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40,352
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MATCHED EVENTS:
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
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Closed: Oct 20, 4:57 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a soccer match between Notts and Sheffield Wednesday, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time. Different thresholds for goal differences determine the resolution.
The event resolves based on the goal differential between Notts and Sheffield Wednesday in their scheduled EFL League One match on October 20, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. If Notts wins by more than 2.5 goals, or by more than 1.5 goals, the market resolves accordingly. Similarly, if Sheffield Wednesday wins by more than 1.5 goals or more than 2.5 goals, the corresponding market resolves positively. All outcomes are evaluated solely on the final score at the end of regular time, with no consideration given to postseason or tiebreaker scenarios. Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and the insights of their oddsmakers, while this market relies on individuals expressing their beliefs through trading. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly favors a particular outcome. These differences can present opportunities for arbitrage, where traders attempt to profit from the price variations between Kalshi and sportsbooks. Examining these differences can offer a broader perspective on the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the spread in the Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday match. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the aggregate expectation of all participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders believe Notts County will win by a larger margin, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase. Conversely, if the market anticipates a closer game, those contracts will become cheaper. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final result of the Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread achieved in the game, as determined by official match statistics. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the contract price at resolution. The platform will verify the result against official sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. This ensures a fair and reliable outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence this market before Oct 21, 2026. Any significant news regarding player injuries, team form, or tactical changes could shift expectations and impact trading activity. Unexpected weather conditions on match day could also play a role, potentially favoring one team over the other. Furthermore, public sentiment and media coverage can influence traders' beliefs, leading to price fluctuations. Major upsets in other related matches or changes in betting patterns at sportsbooks might also cause movement in this market. Monitoring these signals can help you understand potential shifts in the market's outlook.