TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 4:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between two teams in a league game scheduled for a specific date. The result is determined by the final score after the standard playing time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts. The event covers all possible outcomes of the match, including a win for either team or a draw.
The event resolves based on the result of the Notts vs Sheffield Wednesday professional EFL League One soccer match scheduled for October 20, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A 'Yes' outcome for either Notts or Sheffield Wednesday markets occurs if the respective team wins the match within regulation time. The 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes' if the game ends in a draw after regulation time. Extra time and penalty shootouts do not affect the resolution. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform. The event explicitly states that the platform is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, which represents their profit margin. This market, being driven by the collective predictions of traders, tends to be more efficient and can sometimes offer more favorable odds, particularly for outcomes that are underestimated by the public. However, sportsbook odds reflect the views of professional oddsmakers and may incorporate information not yet fully priced into this market. It's always wise to compare both to make informed decisions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday match. The price of each contract reflects the market's current expectation of that outcome's probability. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice-versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities as the event approaches. The platform’s design encourages traders to express their beliefs, leading to a constantly evolving price discovery process.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing sporting body. The platform will then determine the winning contracts and process payouts to traders who correctly predicted the outcome. It’s important to note that the official result is the sole determinant, and any disputes or challenges to the result will not affect the market’s resolution.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in coaching staff, or unexpected player suspensions could significantly impact expectations. Furthermore, pre-match analysis from sports analysts, public sentiment expressed on social media, and even weather conditions on match day can all serve as catalysts for movement. A surprising result in a related match involving either team could also influence traders’ beliefs and lead to adjustments in the market price. Monitoring these signals can provide insights into potential shifts in this market.