TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 1:37 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Nottingham Forest and Arsenal, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a decisive lead over their opponent, defined by specific goal differences. The result is determined solely by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event resolves based on the goal differential of the Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal professional EPL soccer match scheduled for October 18, 2026. Four distinct outcomes are evaluated: Nottingham Forest winning by more than 2.5 goals, Nottingham Forest winning by more than 1.5 goals, Arsenal winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Arsenal winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions are determined after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty kicks. The market will settle to 'Yes' for the applicable outcome if the specified goal differential condition is met; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The event is unaffiliated with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction markets like Kalshi often reflect information and insights different from those priced into traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to make accurate predictions. You may find that this market’s implied probabilities diverge from sportsbook lines, particularly as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It’s common to see discrepancies, as each venue uses different information and has different participants.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the final spread. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by traders’ expectations. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders believe one outcome is more likely, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase. Conversely, if traders believe an outcome is less likely, the price will decrease. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to reflect the collective intelligence of the market participants regarding the outcome of the Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest match.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the actual result of the Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest match. The platform will verify the result against trusted sources to determine the winning contracts. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the final price of the contracts they held, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Arsenal or Nottingham Forest would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions on match day could also shift traders’ expectations. Unexpected announcements about team lineups or key player availability could also cause volatility. Furthermore, major shifts in public sentiment, reflected in analyst predictions or media coverage, could influence trading activity and move the price of this market.