TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 3:25 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Notre Dame or North Carolina specifically in the second half of their college football matchup, including any overtime periods. Each market corresponds to a different point threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered valid.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the second half (including overtime) of the Notre Dame vs North Carolina college football game scheduled for October 3, 2026. For markets where Notre Dame wins by a specified margin in the second half, resolution is 'Yes' only if Notre Dame's point differential exceeds that threshold. Conversely, for markets where North Carolina wins by a specified margin, resolution is 'Yes' only if North Carolina's point differential exceeds the stated threshold. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific point differential conditions outlined in individual markets.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of people believe a particular outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price in this market will move accordingly. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before major events, as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability that the spread will fall in that range at the end of the second half. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices, as they profit from correctly predicting the outcome. As more traders participate, the market price tends to converge towards a more accurate assessment of the likely spread.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread for the second half of the Notre Dame versus North Carolina game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of college football, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the game's style of play, could also shift the odds. Late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could also play a role, as could significant betting activity in traditional sportsbooks that might influence trader sentiment in this market.