TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 2:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting the outcome of a specific segment of a college football game between Northwestern and Michigan State. It centers on which team will dominate during the third quarter, measuring the point differential to determine the result.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the third quarter of the Northwestern vs Michigan State college football game scheduled for October 17, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold for the winning team's point margin over the opponent. If the designated team meets or exceeds the specified point differential during the third quarter, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Only points scored during the third quarter count toward the resolution. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, the markets remain active and resolve based on the official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, the markets will resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often providing a more accurate forecast than traditional sportsbook odds, especially as the event approaches. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individuals trading contracts. However, there can be discrepancies due to differing risk appetites and information available to each group. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts regarding the Northwestern vs Michigan State game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. Buyers are essentially betting that the outcome *will* happen, while sellers are betting it *won’t*. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the market's collective assessment of Northwestern's chances of winning the 3rd quarter by more than 7.5 points, and this price will fluctuate based on supply and demand.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final score of the 3rd quarter of the Northwestern vs Michigan State game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as reported by a trusted sports data source. The market will determine whether Northwestern won the 3rd quarter by more than 7.5 points, and contracts will pay out accordingly to those who correctly predicted the result. Traders should monitor official sources for the final 3rd quarter score to understand the resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Northwestern or Michigan State would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team strategy or coaching decisions could also shift expectations. Furthermore, unexpected weather conditions on game day, or even significant shifts in public sentiment based on pre-game analysis, could cause the market to move. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market leading up to Oct 17, 2026.