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$230,589,906

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2,984,028,936

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$1,885,293,300

410,482

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4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

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VS.

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63%

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Northern Ireland vs. Portugal
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Northern Ireland vs. Portugal?

Volume:
$52,573

Portugal

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 9, 2026

Closed: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Portugal

View
100%
21%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$18,850
N/A
N/A
$10,930
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Portugal

View
100%
24%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,035
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Northern Ireland

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,703
N/A
N/A
$16,061
Settled
No
polymarket

Northern Ireland

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$240
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,606
N/A
N/A
$11,320
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Northern Ireland vs. Portugal)

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,140
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This group forecasts the outcome of a FIFA Women's World Cup Qualifier match between Northern Ireland and Portugal, scheduled for October 9, 2026. Markets exist for Northern Ireland winning, Portugal winning, and the game ending in a draw. Resolution depends on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Differing resolution logic for canceled games. Polymarket resolves to 'No' for any outcome, while Kalshi resolves to 'Yes' for a tie.Hero tip: Be aware that if the game is canceled, Polymarket will resolve to 'No' for win/draw markets, while Kalshi will resolve to 'Yes' for the tie market. This creates a potential arbitrage opportunity or risk depending on your positions.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Markets resolve to 'Yes' if Northern Ireland/Portugal wins or the game ends in a draw. If the game is canceled, the market resolves to 'No'. Resolution is based on official statistics, with fallback sources (Flashscore, Sofascore, consensus reporting).
  • Kalshi: Markets resolve to 'Yes' if Northern Ireland/Portugal wins or the game ends in a tie. Resolution is based on official statistics, with fallback sources. If the game is canceled, the market resolves to 'Yes' for the tie market.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming UEFA Women's World Cup Qualification game, scheduled for Friday, October 9, 2026 between Northern Ireland and Portugal.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the official result of the Northern Ireland vs Portugal professional FIFA World Cup Qualifiers Women soccer match scheduled for October 9, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. If Northern Ireland wins the match within regulation time, the 'Northern Ireland' market resolves to Yes. If Portugal wins within regulation time, the 'Portugal' market resolves to Yes. If the match ends in a tie after regulation time, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the platform's rules. The resolution depends exclusively on the result at the end of regulation time, with no consideration for subsequent proceedings such as extra time or penalty shootouts.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of bettors, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to profit from margins, while this market allows traders to directly express their beliefs. Consequently, discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or risk assessments. It's possible to find arbitrage opportunities by comparing odds across both types of platforms, though transaction costs should be considered.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying levels of expertise and access to information about the Northern Ireland vs. Portugal match. Trading mechanisms also differ; Polymarket may have different order types or liquidity compared to Kalshi. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform influences price discovery. Lower volume can lead to greater price volatility and divergence, while higher volume tends to converge prices towards a consensus view. These factors contribute to the unique price signals observed on each platform.