TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$244,077,041
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,901,278,909
407,043
Markets across
39,548
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,422
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 6:46 PM EST
Polymarket
This prediction group covers various markets related to the UEFA Nations League match between Northern Ireland and Georgia, including spread betting and over/under goals scored in the entire match and in specific halves. Markets are available on both Polymarket and Kalshi.
More markets for the UEFA Nations League game, scheduled for October 5 at 2:45 PM ET.
The event resolves based on whether the total goals scored by both Northern Ireland and Georgia in their UEFA Nations League match exceed specified thresholds. All markets consider only goals scored during the 90-minute regulation time plus any added stoppage time; extra time and penalty kicks are excluded from the count. Each market corresponds to a different threshold (0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, or 5.5 goals), with the market resolving to 'Yes' if the actual total exceeds that threshold. The outcome is determined immediately following the conclusion of regulation time. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of information than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the collective predictions of traders. This can lead to discrepancies, as prediction markets may be more sensitive to nuanced information or expert opinions. However, both aim to accurately forecast the probability of an event occurring, and comparing the two can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the potential outcomes for the Northern Ireland vs. Georgia match.
Prices for this market on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading fees, and liquidity, which can influence price discovery. Additionally, differing levels of information available to traders on each platform, or varying interpretations of the same information, can lead to discrepancies. Market-specific factors, such as differing opinions on team form or potential player injuries, can also contribute to price differences. These variations present opportunities for arbitrage, where traders attempt to profit from price inconsistencies between the two platforms.