TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 6:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the margin of victory in an upcoming college football game, allowing participants to speculate on how decisively either team might win. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the bet to pay out.
All markets resolve based on the official final score of the North Texas vs Navy college football game scheduled for October 24, 2026. For markets where North Texas must win by a specified margin, if North Texas wins by more points than the stated threshold, those markets resolve to Yes; otherwise, they resolve to No. Conversely, for markets where Navy must win by a specified margin, if Navy wins by more points than the stated threshold, those markets resolve to Yes; otherwise, they resolve to No. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game fails to start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants under unforeseen circumstances.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning closely with sportsbook odds but sometimes diverging due to differing information or perspectives. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs about the game's outcome. If there’s a significant difference between the two, it could indicate that traders on Kalshi have access to information not yet fully incorporated into sportsbook lines, or simply hold a different collective opinion about the likely result. It's a fascinating comparison to observe as game day approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the North Texas vs Navy game. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective predictions of the traders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders believe North Texas will cover a specific spread, the price of contracts representing that spread will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date expectations of the game’s outcome, driven entirely by trader activity.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final point spread of the North Texas vs Navy game, as determined by official game statistics. The platform will compare the actual result to the various spread contracts offered, and payouts will be made accordingly to those who correctly predicted the final margin of victory. Traders should monitor official sources for the final score to understand the resolution of this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any news regarding key player injuries on either the North Texas or Navy teams would likely have a substantial impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also shift trader sentiment. Significant news about team strategies or coaching decisions might also influence the market. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi themselves can create momentum and drive price fluctuations as traders react to perceived information or shifts in overall market opinion.