TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 4:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a soccer match between North Macedonia and Scotland, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential, reflecting the competitive balance and performance of both sides during the match.
The event evaluates four distinct outcome scenarios for the North Macedonia vs Scotland UEFA Nations League soccer match scheduled for October 3, 2026. Each scenario is defined by a specific goal differential favoring either North Macedonia or Scotland after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. If North Macedonia wins by more than 2.5 goals, or by more than 1.5 goals, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Similarly, if Scotland wins by more than 1.5 goals, or by more than 2.5 goals, the relevant market resolves to Yes. The rules clarify that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small number of experts, while this market aggregates insights from many participants. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before a significant amount of trading occurs. These differences can arise from varying information access, analytical approaches, or simply differing opinions on the likely outcome of the North Macedonia vs Scotland match.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the North Macedonia vs Scotland match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for a contract that pays out if their predicted outcome happens.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the North Macedonia vs Scotland match as determined by official sports data providers. The platform will verify the result against these sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will not.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 4, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either North Macedonia or Scotland would likely cause movement. Significant changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the managers, or even weather forecasts for the match location could also impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements related to the teams or the competition itself could also shift expectations and lead to price fluctuations in this market.