TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 12:25 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks which team will score the first touchdown in an upcoming college football game between North Carolina and Pittsburgh. It covers all types of touchdowns, including those from offense, defense, or special teams, and accounts for scoring in overtime periods. If no team scores a touchdown during the entire game, a separate outcome is available.
The market resolves based on which team scores the first touchdown in the North Carolina vs Pittsburgh college football game scheduled for October 10, 2026, regardless of whether the score occurs during regulation time or overtime. All touchdown types—including offensive, defensive, and special teams plays—are counted toward resolution. If neither team scores a touchdown at any point in the game, including overtime, the 'No team scores a TD' market resolves as the correct outcome. Postponements are handled such that if the game commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, the market remains open and resolves based on the official result. If the game does not start within this 48-hour window, the market resolves to a fair price. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the NCAA, and all trademarks referenced belong to their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often being more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially as the event approaches. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while this market allows traders to directly assess probabilities. However, initial sportsbook lines can sometimes differ significantly from the opening prices on Kalshi. It's common to see convergence as more information becomes available and both markets react to news and analysis regarding the North Carolina vs Pittsburgh game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the likelihood of each team scoring the first touchdown. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the implied probability of that outcome. As more people buy contracts for a particular team, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently incorporates new information as traders react to news, injuries, and other relevant factors influencing the game. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to reflect the collective intelligence of the market participants.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which team is officially recorded as scoring the first touchdown in the North Carolina vs Pittsburgh game, according to official game statistics. The result will be determined by the official game records and verified against credible public sources. Traders holding contracts for the winning outcome will be paid out based on the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the North Carolina or Pittsburgh teams would likely cause price movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team's offensive style, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or team lineups could also shift probabilities. Finally, general public sentiment and media coverage surrounding the game could contribute to changes in the market price leading up to Oct 10, 2026.