TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 14, 6:06 PM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming NL game, scheduled for October 14 at 1:45PM ET: If Lausanne win, the market will resolve to "Lausanne". If Ajoie win, the market will resolve to "Ajoie". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
In the upcoming NL game, scheduled for October 14 at 1:45PM ET: If Lausanne win, the market will resolve to "Lausanne". If Ajoie win, the market will resolve to "Ajoie". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and real-time adjustments from traders. If sportsbook odds suggest a clear favorite, this market might show a more nuanced probability distribution, especially if there's significant uncertainty or potential for an upset. Discrepancies can arise due to differing risk assessments and the incentives of participants in each venue.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds remain responsive to changing conditions and provide a real-time estimate of the event's likelihood.
This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Lausanne vs. Ajoie match as reported by the governing sports authority. The platform will verify the result against publicly available data to determine the winning outcome and distribute payouts accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand how this market will be settled.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 14, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team performance in preceding matches, or changes in coaching strategies could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule or venue could also have an impact. Furthermore, major upsets in other related games or tournaments might influence perceptions of team strength and overall probabilities. Monitoring sports news and analysis will be key to understanding potential catalysts for movement in this market.